Myanmar’s Agricultural Economy Amid Climate and Socio-Political Challenges
Myanmar faces significant agricultural economic challenges as climate risks and socio-political factors intensify, increasing the urgent need for resilience, sustainable practices, and effective disaster management to ensure food security and protect livelihoods.
Key Takeaways:
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Myanmar’s agriculture, the backbone of the economy, faces severe climate risks, including floods that impact food production, GDP, and community stability.
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Socio-political challenges, such as the 2021 military coup and COVID-19, have doubled poverty rates and disrupted essential climate-resilience initiatives, deepening vulnerabilities in agriculture.
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To build resilience, Myanmar needs climate-smart agriculture, sustainable land practices, and collaborative disaster risk reduction, though progress remains hindered by political instability and limited resources.
Myanmar is the second largest country in Southeast Asia, and agriculture remains a crucial component of its economy. According to Myanmar Agricultural Statistics, 17.74% is the net sown area, and 9.75% is a cultivable wasteland. Fertile land and abundant freshwater make Myanmar an ideal place for agricultural practices, which contributes approximately 22 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), accounts for over 29 percent of total export earnings, and nearly half of the employees rely on crop production, livestock, breeding, fishing, and agroforestry.
Agricultural Vulnerability to Natural Hazards
Despite its significance, this sector is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, including floods, cyclones, earthquakes, droughts, landslides, and tsunamis. Storms and floods alone account for 11 percent and 10 percent of the disaster, respectively. In Myanmar, floods are most common during the monsoon season, from May to October, with river flood risks peaking at 49% in August. Flood exposure is exceptionally high in the densely populated Yangon and the Ayeyarwady Region, where flooding threatens agricultural production, residential areas, infrastructure, and community welfare.
Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters on Agriculture
Historically, Myanmar frequently suffers extensive losses of life, livelihoods, and property due to natural disaster events. From 2008 to 2023, approximately 49% of internal displacements - totaling around 7 million—were caused by flooding. The 2015 floods damaged 20% of the country’s cultivated land, and sectors such as agriculture, livestock, and fisheries were severely affected, with total losses equivalent to 4.2% of its GDP. The 2024 floods, intensified by Typhoon Yagi, submerged an estimated 2.3 million hectares of farmland during a critical rice-planting season, likely reducing paddy output to a slightly below-average level of 23.6 million tonnes.
Furthermore, the agricultural losses from floods, such as the $600 million GDP loss noted in 2018, highlight how extreme weather events increasingly threaten national economic stability. Between 2016 and 2019, floods contributed to an economic burden of approximately 3% of Myanmar’s GDP per year due to disaster-related costs. Beyond the direct costs, floods contribute to secondary economic consequences, such as inflation and reduced exports, which directly weaken purchasing power in affected communities.
Socio-Political Challenges Compounding Vulnerability
Myanmar’s economy has faced severe setbacks due to the dual impacts of COVID-19 and the 2021 military coup. These crises have nearly doubled the poverty rate from 24.8% in 2017 to a projected 48.2% by 2022, reversing years of progress in reducing poverty and improving livelihoods. Key sectors like agriculture and small businesses, which employ much of the population, have suffered significant income losses, with 83.3% of households reporting reduced incomes. Vulnerable groups, particularly women and children, bear the brunt of these impacts, as rising costs and disruptions limit access to essential goods and services.
Environmental Degradation and Agricultural Challenges
Besides, flooding also impacts ecosystems and biodiversity, leading to soil erosion, nutrient depletion, and water contamination, which harm agricultural productivity. Given these environmental and agricultural challenges, adopting sustainable practices is essential. Techniques like agroforestry, crop rotation, and organic farming can build soil resilience and foster biodiversity, reducing agriculture’s vulnerability to floods and other natural disasters. Furthermore, reforestation and wetland restoration can help absorb excess rainfall, reducing runoff and lowering flood risks.
Unfortunately, Myanmar is one of the top ten countries globally for deforestation, with a rate between 1% and 2.5% from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, since the coup, logging and mining activities have increased. These unregulated, widespread resource extraction activities exacerbate the effects of flooding, disrupt local ecosystems, and increase people’s vulnerability to climate hazards.
Climate Change Projections and Future Risks
Projections show that average global temperatures may rise by as much as 4.5-5°C by the century’s end without global action. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the Southeast Asian region will face flood risks by 25% by 2050 if global temperatures continue to rise. For Myanmar, this would mean even more intense monsoons, potentially doubling the current levels of flooding and causing more significant agricultural losses.
Myanmar is already ranked as the world’s second most affected country between 2000 and 2019 and is the most vulnerable to new disasters in the coming years. By 2030, an additional 299,900 people may be at risk of river floods annually due to climate change. Without significant investments in adaptation, an annual average of 18 million people are projected to be affected by flooding due to sea level rise between 2070 and 2100.
Learning from International Experiences: Resilience Strategies
Many countries, like Japan and New Zealand, recognize the need for agricultural resilience and have implemented measures to help farmers adapt to climate risks. These nations are providing science-based information and decision-support tools. Often co-created with farmers, these tools offer strategies for handling extreme weather. Countries also use nature-based solutions, like Japan’s paddy field dams, to mitigate flood risks.
Therefore, Practical steps are urgently needed to strengthen Myanmar’s agricultural resilience in the face of climate risks. Myanmar has committed to applying Climate-Smart Agriculture to contribute to regional food security and environmental protection. This CSA strategy emphasizes developing flood-resilient rice varieties, improving water management, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices that withstand flood-induced stresses. Initiatives like the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) and Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) techniques are integral to this approach, helping farmers manage water more effectively to mitigate the risks of excessive rainfall.
Additionally, Myanmar’s CSA approach underscores the value of traditional flood-resistant crop varieties and indigenous farming practices, incorporating local knowledge as a crucial adaptation strategy. Indigenous farmers have valuable knowledge about local conditions and adaptive methods passed down over generations. Combining their traditional practices with modern farming techniques can strengthen resilience to flooding and other climate challenges. However, security concerns, limited mobility, and a lack of trust between communities and government bodies hinder this vital collaboration.
Policy and Institutional Challenges in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
Despite the progress seen in various countries, Myanmar still faces significant challenges in incorporating effective flood mitigation strategies into its disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy. The Department of Disaster Management, under the Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief, and Resettlement, is central to coordinating DRR efforts. While frameworks like the Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR) 2017 have been developed, Myanmar’s disaster management faces critical challenges, including limited data, insufficient technical support, funding gaps, and a top-down policymaking approach that hinders effective local engagement and resilience efforts.
Not just these challenges, but since the 2021 coup, political conflicts in Myanmar have significantly intensified the challenges faced in implementing flood resilience and disaster risk reduction strategies in Myanmar’s agriculture sector. Before 2021, the Myanmar elected government showed a strong commitment to addressing climate change, as evidenced by its first National Climate Change Strategy published in 2019, which prioritized climate resilience and disaster risk reduction. However, ongoing conflicts lead to the suspension or delay of government-led climate initiatives. Inadequate climate-resilience policies and a lack of investment in agricultural research have weakened Myanmar’s agricultural sector.
Role of International Aid and Local Civil Society
Since the 2021 coup, international aid organizations, having ceased direct cooperation with the military-led State Administrative Council (SAC), now primarily fund local civil society organizations (CSOs) to implement DRR and humanitarian efforts. Local CSOs often work under intense scrutiny, face threats, and operate in volatile environments, particularly in SAC-controlled areas. Without stable political support, Myanmar’s capacity to adopt resilience strategies will remain limited, and local communities and the agricultural sector continue to face heightened risk.
Building agricultural resilience in Myanmar is an economic priority and a foundation for food security and community stability. Addressing this complex challenge requires international collaboration, promoting education for sustainable development, and innovation across sectors. The path to resilience is a continuous process, demanding commitment from all parts of society - from government institutions to individual farmers. With the additional pressures of poverty and ongoing conflict, proactive measures are essential to protect livelihoods and foster sustainable agricultural development. Such actions today mitigate immediate risks and help build a sustainable, climate-resilient future for Myanmar.
Conclusion
Building resilience in Myanmar’s agriculture is not just a national concern but a regional one. The challenges Myanmar faces will likely have ripple effects throughout Southeast Asia. International collaboration and local empowerment are critical to addressing Myanmar’s agricultural vulnerabilities. Global stakeholders must continue to support local CSOs, encourage sustainable agricultural practices, and push for the restoration of democratic governance to enable climate resilience efforts to take root.
Climate change, socio-political instability, and economic setbacks challenge food security and economic stability. However, with the right policies, practices, and international collaboration, Myanmar can build a resilient agricultural system capable of withstanding future challenges. The time to act is now for the sake of its people, economy, and its role in regional food security.
Windia Soe is a Junior Research Fellow at the Sustainability Lab of the Shwetaungthagathu Reform Initiative Centre (SRIc). With over seven years of experience, she focuses on health and social behavior change, working with international and local NGOs.
“Advocating Sustainability, Shaping Our Future”
Contact: sabaitimes@shwetaungthagathu.com