Market-related

Over the past two months, India has removed several of its restrictions affecting rice exports, some in place since September 2022. This is welcome news for rice importing countries, which for the past year have had to seek alternative suppliers at significantly elevated prices.

In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice. Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024.

Recent shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have disrupted global food and fertilizer supply chains—causing price spikes and increased price volatility—a disastrous combination for many vulnerable consumers around the world.

The FAO Food Price Index rose by nearly 1 percent in May due to increased cereal and dairy prices. It remained 3.4 percent below its May 2023 levels and nearly 25 percent below the peak seen in March 2022.

Over 30% of rice sold in city markets in Bangladesh is refined and branded into the shape, size, and color known as miniket, which owes its popularity to its bright white color and slender grains. But miniket rice is a flawed product: It is not a true rice variety and has low levels of essential nutrients. Owing to high demand from consumers, rice vendors often sell different types of highly processed rice under that name. Processing renders miniket significantly less nutritious than other common rice types in Bangladesh, IFPRI research shows.